China’s population is expected to shrink this year, marking a historic turning point for the world’s most populous nation. According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the country’s population will decline by 1.1 million in 2022, the first decrease since the Great Chinese Famine in the 1960s..
This unexpected development has surprised observers, who had long anticipated that China’s population would continue to grow. The decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including a falling birth rate, an aging population, and changes in government policies..
**Falling Birth Rate**.
China’s birth rate has been declining steadily for decades. In 2021, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.16 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. This decline is due to several factors, including rising costs of living, increased educational attainment among women, and a shift in social norms..
**Aging Population**.
China’s population is also aging rapidly. The number of people aged 65 and over has increased significantly in recent years, while the number of working-age people has declined. This demographic shift is putting a strain on the country’s healthcare and social welfare systems..
**Government Policies**.
Government policies have also played a role in the population decline. China’s strict one-child policy, which was implemented in the 1970s, has limited the number of births. In recent years, the government has relaxed this policy, but it has not yet had a significant impact on the birth rate..
**Implications**.
The shrinking population in China has far-reaching implications for the country and the world. It will lead to a decline in the labor force, slower economic growth, and increased pressure on social welfare systems. It could also have geopolitical consequences, as China’s role in the global economy and its international influence may diminish..
**Surprising Observers**.
The population decline in China has come as a surprise to many observers. For decades, it was assumed that China’s population would continue to grow, driven by its large rural population and economic development. However, the combination of a falling birth rate, an aging population, and government policies has led to a reversal of this trend..
**Historic Turning Point**.
The shrinking population in China marks a historic turning point for the country. It is the first time in modern history that China’s population has declined. This development has significant implications for China’s future and for the world as a whole..
